See every live warrant tranche in the market: the price a stock must reach before warrants become exercisable, the shares that hit the market when they are, the cash that lands in treasury, and when the overhang expires.
Junior mining companies fund exploration by issuing units in private placements, and a unit is almost always a share plus some fraction of a warrant. The warrant is the sweetener: it gives the buyer the right to purchase another share later at a fixed price. That right is what makes the placement sellable, and it is also a liability the company carries for years afterwards.
The terms sit in individual press releases, one financing at a time, and essentially nobody aggregates them. So the question an investor actually has — how many shares are queued up to hit the market in this stock, at what price, and when — has no convenient answer.
This tool builds that answer from the financing record: the strike prices, the expiry dates, the estimated warrants outstanding, the cash that would enter treasury on exercise, and the expiry wall showing when large blocks of overhang fall away.
Strike price is what a warrant holder pays to convert their warrant into a share. While the market price sits below the strike the warrants are out of the money and largely dormant. Above it, exercise becomes rational and the overhang becomes real.
Percentage to strike is how far the share price must travel to reach that point. A stock trading 5% below a large tranche's strike has a ceiling immediately overhead; one trading 300% below effectively does not.
Estimated warrants and estimated dilution are the share count that would be created on full exercise, and what that represents against the existing count. Both are labelled as estimates for a reason explained in the method section below.
Estimated proceeds is the cash the company would receive. This is the constructive side of warrants: exercise dilutes holders but funds the next programme without a new placement, often on better terms than the company could otherwise get.
The expiry wall shows when tranches lapse. Warrants that expire unexercised are overhang that simply disappears — a quiet, genuinely good outcome for existing holders that almost never gets announced.
The situation to understand before buying is a large tranche struck slightly above the current price. That is a ceiling. As the stock approaches the strike, holders who bought the placement have an obvious trade available — exercise and sell — and the resulting supply tends to cap the move that triggered it. Rallies into a heavy strike frequently stall there for reasons that have nothing to do with the geology.
The comfortable situation is modest estimated dilution, strikes far above the current price, and expiries spread out rather than clustered. The uncomfortable one is heavy estimated dilution concentrated in a single tranche just overhead.
An expiry wall in the near future is worth flagging in both directions. If the stock is below the strike, that overhang is about to vanish and the share count stops being threatened. If it is above, expect exercise and the associated selling before the deadline.
Tranches are built from the financing record: units issued, warrant strike price, and expiry date, combined with the latest available share price. The expiry wall groups tranches by lapse date, and the sector-wide view is capped at the largest tranches so the payload stays manageable.
The most important caveat is that warrant counts are estimates, not facts. Placements are sold as units of one share plus a fraction of a warrant — a half, a third, sometimes a whole one. That fraction is stated in the original press release but is not recorded as a structured field, so the warrant count is derived from an assumed coverage ratio of half a warrant per unit, which is the sector norm. The assumption is adjustable. If a particular placement was a full-warrant deal, the true overhang is roughly double what is shown; if it was a third-warrant deal, considerably less.
Everything derived from that count inherits the assumption:
The pool of shares that could be created if outstanding warrants are exercised. Warrants issued in past financings give holders the right to buy new shares at a fixed strike price. While the share price is below that strike they are mostly dormant; once it rises above, exercise becomes likely, new shares are issued, and existing holders are diluted — often capping the very rally that made exercise attractive.
Because placements are sold as units of one share plus a fraction of a warrant, and that fraction is disclosed in the press release rather than stored as structured data. The tool assumes half a warrant per unit, the sector norm, and lets you change it. A full-warrant placement carries roughly double the overhang shown; a third-warrant placement considerably less.
It cuts both ways. Exercise issues new shares and dilutes existing holders, which is negative. It also puts cash into the treasury without a new placement, which funds the next programme and avoids a raise that might have come at a worse price. The problem is rarely the dilution itself but its timing — exercise clusters exactly when the share price is strong.
When large blocks of warrants lapse. If the share price is below the strike as expiry approaches, that overhang disappears and the threat to the share count goes with it — a genuinely good outcome that companies rarely announce. If the price is above the strike, expect a wave of exercise and associated selling ahead of the deadline.
Because holders of that tranche have an obvious trade available as the price approaches: exercise at the strike and sell into the strength. That supply arrives precisely when the stock is trying to break higher, which is why a heavy tranche just overhead often functions as a ceiling regardless of the underlying news.